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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, though experts believe PVV stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise top result and established a multi-party all-conservative coalition that lasted barely a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June over disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a campaign focused on issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, projected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with several facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of division ensures that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of power. But, critics and analysts say that first place does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks could take months, analysts suggest that following the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a inclusive alliance headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is expected shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before assuming power.